‌Introduction: The Steel Industry at a Historic Crossroads‌

The global steel market in 2025 is undergoing unprecedented changes. On one hand, China's "dual carbon" policy is entering a critical phase, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is fully implemented, and green steel technologies are making breakthroughs. On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts are causing volatile energy prices, and supply chain regionalization is accelerating. This article will analyze the key trends and strategic opportunities in the international steel market over the next five years from three dimensions: technological innovation, demand evolution, and geopolitical dynamics.

‌I. Technological Revolution: Low-Carbon Transformation Reshaping the Industry‌

‌1.1 Commercialization of Hydrogen-Based Steelmaking‌

Sweden's HYBRIT project has achieved commercial production of 1.2 million tons of carbon-free steel annually, with its hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) technology reducing CO₂ emissions to less than 5% of traditional methods. By 2028, global hydrogen-based steel capacity is expected to exceed 50 million tons, primarily distributed in Europe (45%), China (30%), and the Middle East (15%).

‌1.2 Breakthroughs in Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) Technology‌

Nucor's smart EAF system in the U.S. has increased scrap utilization to 92% while reducing energy consumption by 18%. With global scrap steel supply projected to reach 2.5 billion tons by 2030, the share of EAF steel will rise from 30% in 2024 to 40%.

‌1.3 China's Technological Breakthroughs‌

Baowu Group's "hydrogen-enriched carbon-circulating blast furnace" has achieved a 21% reduction in CO₂ emissions per ton of steel, making its Zhanjiang plant the world's first "zero-carbon steel mill." Over the next five years, China is expected to hold 35% of global patents in hydrogen metallurgy and carbon capture (CCUS).

‌II. Demand Evolution: Structural Shifts Intensify‌

‌2.1 Decline in Traditional Sectors and Emerging Growth Areas‌

• ‌Construction Steel‌: Global share drops from 55% in 2020 to 48% in 2025, with Southeast Asian infrastructure demand as a key driver.
• ‌Automotive Steel‌: High-strength steel demand grows at 15% annually, driven by Tesla's 4680 battery casings.
• ‌Renewable Energy Equipment‌: Weather-resistant steel for wind turbines and galvanized steel for solar panel frames grow at over 20% CAGR.

‌2.2 Regional Market Characteristics‌

‌III. Geopolitical Dynamics: A New Paradigm for Supply Chain Security‌

‌3.1 Escalating Trade Barriers‌

• The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act requires 80% localization of steel for EVs by 2027.
• India imposes anti-dumping duties of up to 25% on Chinese steel, shifting to Russian coking coal imports.

‌3.2 Battle for Critical Resources‌

• Guinea's Simandou iron ore project (2026) will reshape global iron ore supply.
• Cobalt export restrictions in the DRC impact specialty steel production.

‌3.3 Strategies for Chinese Enterprises‌

1. Invest in nickel-iron-stainless steel projects in Indonesia to bypass Western barriers.
2. Partner with Middle Eastern sovereign funds to build green steel industrial parks.
3. Optimize global supply chain responsiveness using digital twin technology.

‌IV. Risk Assessment and Strategic Recommendations‌

‌4.1 Risk Matrix‌

‌4.2 Corporate Action Plan‌

• ‌Short-term (2025-2027)‌: Implement carbon footprint tracking and secure international certifications.
• ‌Mid-term (2028-2030)‌: Establish short-process steel plants in RCEP regions.
• ‌Long-term (2030+)‌: Participate in setting global green steel standards.

‌Conclusion: Forging Resilience for the Future‌

The next five years will be a critical period for the steel industry's value reassessment. Companies must seize the "green premium" opportunity and integrate ESG into core strategies. As Edwin Basson, Director General of the World Steel Association, stated: "The future of the steel industry belongs not to the largest, but to the fastest innovators." In this era of uncertainty, only those who build technological, market, and geopolitical competitiveness will thrive in the next industrial revolution.

This analysis comprehensively examines the three core dimensions of the international steel market. For deeper exploration or adjustments to the framework, please provide specific feedback.