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News
Global Steel Market Outlook: H2 2025 Analysis and Projections
Views: 27 Update Date: Jun 12 , 2025
Executive Summary
The steel industry enters H2 2025 amid shifting trade patterns, decarbonization pressures, and regional demand asymmetries. This report examines key market drivers, price trends, and strategic considerations for stakeholders.
The steel industry enters H2 2025 amid shifting trade patterns, decarbonization pressures, and regional demand asymmetries. This report examines key market drivers, price trends, and strategic considerations for stakeholders.
Regional Market Dynamics
- Asia-Pacific (Ex-China)- Demand: 6-8% growth projected, fueled by infrastructure projects in India (+12% YoY) and ASEAN (+9%).
- Supply: New capacity additions in Vietnam (5M tonnes) may trigger local oversupply concerns.
- Prices expected to remain 15-20% above 2024 averages due to carbon border taxes (CBAM Phase 3).
- Green steel premiums could reach €50-80/tonne as EU mills accelerate hydrogen-based production.
- Potential Section 232 tariff revisions may reshape import flows, favoring Mexican/Latin American suppliers.
- Automotive sector recovery to drive 4-5% QoQ demand growth.
- GCC countries investing $30B+ in steel-intensive renewable energy projects.
- African imports may surge 18% as local production fails to meet infrastructure needs.
- China’s Export Strategy: Expected quota adjustments could redirect 5-7M tonnes of exports to Global South markets.
- Raw Material Volatility: Iron ore likely to trade at $90-110/tonne range, with coking coal facing ESG-driven supply constraints.
- Technological Disruption: 12% of global capacity now equipped with carbon capture systems, creating tiered pricing structures.
- RegionHRC Baseline (USD/tonne)Potential RangeSE Asia620580-670EU740700-820USA790750-850
- Buyers should secure Q3 contracts before anticipated Q4 price hikes.
- Producers must accelerate inventory turnover amid rising financing costs.
- Traders should monitor China’s export VAT policy changes (expected August 2025).
